Could Southeast’s First District “swing” for a, uh, Republican?
“Hogan won big here,” says Councilman Jim Kraft, who announced this week he won’t seek re-election in the district
Above: A jogger along the waterfront promenade in Canton, a neighborhood ripe for Republicanism?
Baltimore’s City Council has been Democratic as long as anyone can remember, but to hear Councilman James B. Kraft talk, the party’s lock on city government is not guaranteed.
Kraft announced this week to the Canton Community Association that he won’t be running for a fourth term as the 1st District rep in 2016, leaving the seat wide open for a political newcomer.
In a follow-up interview with The Brew, Kraft was speculative about the district’s future leadership. “The Southeast is unique,” he said. “It’s the only district in Baltimore with a white majority and a Latino minority. And Hogan won big here.”
Kraft’s district includes a socially diverse swath from Little Italy and Fell’s Point through the Eastern Avenue corridor, including Canton, Patterson Park, Greektown (now mostly Latino), Graceland Park, Bayview and St. Helena, which is close to Dundalk in Baltimore County, which went heavily Republican last November.
Not Lockstep Anymore
The Southeast has a fairly strong activist community, galvanized around bipartisan issues such as economic development, crime, local business, taxes and transit.
The district is a hotbed of intense support for, and fervent opposition against, the proposed Red Line, which would run through waterfront Canton along Boston Street.
Broadly speaking, the district is socially liberal, not unlike Republican governor, Larry Hogan, who upset what had been considered a sure win for former Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown.
Councilman Jim Kraft points to the votes garnered by Larry Hogan in the gubernatorial race. (Photo by Mark Reutter)
Kraft says the field for his replacement is wide open.
“I know of at least five or six people who are considering running. The ballot will be a long one. You don’t get open seats very often.”
He declined to name any of the potential candidates or their affiliations.
The last Republican to serve on the Baltimore City Council was elected more than 75 years (in 1939), but Kraft hinted that a Republican could have a fighting chance.
“Younger residents and newcomers don’t necessarily vote Democrat, “ he said. (For the record, one Democratic officeholder, Baltimore Circuit Court Clerk Frank M. Conaway Sr., has changed his party affiliation to Republican following Hogan’s victory.)
In his speech on Monday night, Kraft highlighted Hogan’s victory in the historically Democratic Southeast.
“Hogan won big here,” Kraft said, alluding to the gubernatorial vote in several precincts. Specifically, Hogan got more than 60% of the vote at School 47 (Hampstead Hill Academy) and Hatton Senior Center precincts.
Even in pockets thought to be Democratic strongholds, the vote was close. The Brown-Ulman ticket, for example, won by less than one percentage point in Little Italy.
Fed up with the Status Quo
Kraft readily acknowledged his district’s lower income areas – O’Donnell Heights (public housing), parts of Upper Fells Point and the immigrant communities – but said that “overall, the district is wealthy” compared to the rest of the city.
“There’s more wealth in the waterfront area than in parts of Roland Park,” he asserted, referring to the high concentration of expensive condos and apartments in Canton, Fells Point and Harbor East.
He implied that the district could swing, not only because of the area’s relative affluence, but because of its evolving demographics. “The new, younger residents moving in,” he said. “We have young Republicans and Independents here now,” alluding to the predominantly professional and entrepreneurial class that has moved to the southeast in the last 10 or so years.
Mike Beczkowski, a member of the Canton Community Association and a Republican, believes the 1st District’s demographics have changed enough – and voters from all parties are disappointed enough – that a Republican is electable.
“Many newcomers to our area are, frankly, shocked by the city’s persistent failures to correct several systemic issues plaguing our economic well-being, including high taxes and fees, violent crime and the city’s feckless economic policies. . . [These] have produced poorer outcomes for all of us,” Beczkowski said.
“These newcomers are not used to this level of consistent failure.”
He said Hogan’s message of cutting taxes, reducing government spending and creating a friendlier business environment resonated well with people he knows.
In fact, Beczkowski said he started thinking about the area’s potential for Republican representation after Kraft’s speech Tuesday night.
“If a Republican ran a campaign focusing on these economic and quality of life issues, it would make for a very interesting election and give the incumbent party a run for its money. People are fed up with the status quo.”