Chesapeake crab population drops to second lowest level ever tallied
Scientists are searching for answers to the decline in the Bay’s most valuable catch and an important indicator of the estuary’s health
Above: A blue crab is netted on Maryland’s Choptank River. (Dave Harp/Bay Journal)
The Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population has slipped to its second lowest level in 35 years, culminating a slump that has fisheries scientists searching for answers to the decline in the Bay’s most valuable catch and a closely watched indicator of the estuary’s health.
The latest dredge survey conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Virginia Institute of Marine Science found an estimated 238 million crabs in the Bay, down from 317 million the winter before. Fisheries managers attribute the 25% decline at least in part to colder-than-average temperatures last winter that likely killed off many crabs as they slumbered on the bottom.
Even so, this marks the sixth consecutive year of below-average abundance detected by the survey, mostly under less harsh conditions.
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Just three years ago, the survey reported an all-time low population of 226 million crabs.
That prompted scientists to launch a comprehensive study of the Bay’s crab population and what might explain its sub-par abundance. The results of that stock assessment, due in 2026, are expected to guide future management of the fishery.
Crabs estimated to be in Chesapeake Bay have dropped from 800 million in 1990 to less than 250 million this year. (Maryland Department of Natural Resources)
Declines Seen Baywide
The latest survey found decreases across the board in adult and juvenile crabs. The number of spawning-age females dropped from 133 million in 2024 to 108 million this year, a 19% decline.
Their abundance is still enough to produce a bountiful crop of offspring, given the right environmental conditions, managers say.
But the number of juvenile crabs found last winter – 103 million – was the third lowest on record, the latest in a six-year run of below-average abundance detected. The number of adult male crabs picked up by the latest survey, meanwhile, hit an all-time low of 26 million, a drop of more than 40% from the previous year.
Adult male crabs hit an all-time low of 26 million, a drop of more than 40% from the previous year.
Managers said overfishing did not appear to be a factor. Commercial harvests declined Baywide, they pointed out.
Virginia Marine Resources Commissioner Jamie Green noted that the crab population varies, sometimes widely, from year to year. VMRC’s press release said managers were cautiously optimistic, given the seemingly adequate population of female crabs.
“While this year’s survey shows a decline in overall abundance, Virginia watermen have experienced good catch rates so far this season,” he said.
• This story was first published in the Bay Journal.